Waiver Adds, Avoids, and Trade Targets - Week 12

Waiver Players You Should TRUST:

Broncos QB, Bo Nix

Somehow Nix is owned in under 50% of leagues nationally, he’s pushed himself into a QB 1 despite a slow start, and is one of the highest-scoring QBs since Week 3. Nix seemingly kicked his ‘slow-start’ issue and his WRs are playing well now. Sutton, Vele, and now Mims all have a great connection with Bo. 

Buccaneers D/ST
I’ve been hyping up the Bucs defense for two weeks now, but it did just take a slight turn for the worse. Tommy DeVito starting for NYG is a wrinkle, DeVito is the best passer the Giants have, but he hasn’t played an NFL game in almost a year. Corner Jamel Dean is set to return this week but they are likely without Zyon McCollum so that’s a neutral exchange in the pass defense. 

Ultimately with defenses and FF-scoring it comes down to matchups, and TB has a great schedule coming up, facing NYG-CAR-LV-LAC-DAL-CAR from Week 12 to 17.

Saints WR, Marquez Valdes-Scantling

It’s working so why fight it? MVS has brought in two deep TDs in each of the last two weeks. On top of that, New Orleans has nothing else going on at WR so MVS is the de facto #1. 

Chargers TE, Will Dissly

Will Dissly isn’t breaking out, but the scheme is moving in his direction, and the schedule is a massive benefit for the next few weeks. There are 6 FF-viable TEs on BYE this week but Jonnu Smith, Taysom Hill, and Zach Ertz all had big games so Dissly is the cast-out of the four. (Ertz had a similar game but did it on TNF and had the Octopus)

LAC faces Baltimore, Atlanta, and the premiere matchup vs. KC. Baltimore and KC are the most exploitable.

Dolphins TE, Jonnu Smith

A more athletic TE than Dissly, he’s the #9 TE in PPG YTD and #6 since Week 6. Smith has great boom-bust potential and will be needed more in the passing game as they face tougher corners in the coming weeks.

NE - Christian Gonzalez

GB - Xavier McKinney/Jaire Alexander (should be healthy for this game)

NYJ - Bad

Waiver Players You Should DISTRUST:

Broncos WR, Lil’Jordan Humphrey

LJH brought in a score against Atlanta and had a nice FF-day with it, but LJH is the only receiver that plays consistently AND drops passes consistently. Vele plays a similar role but is making at least one ‘how did he catch that’ play each game.

Browns WR, Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy has had a career revival since Winston took over, averaging 10 targets per game in Winston’s 3 outings. Jeudy’s game was buoyed by an 80+ yard TD but he was able to rack up a respectable 6-55-0/10 game outside of that play. The issue here isn’t Jeudy or Winston, but rather the schedule coming up. Most analysts have him as a ‘should already be rostered’ or as someone to unload a bunch of FAAB on, but this passing game WILL NOT survive against PIT-DEN-PIT in the next 3 weeks. 

Bills WR, Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel does this from time to time, and we all get suckered in because he’s athletic and everyone KNOWS he could be great, but we also all KNOW that he will never find consistency.

Chiefs TE, Noah Gray

Gray had two scores but that’s all it was, two scores. The only TE in KC is Travis Kelce until Travis Kelce retires.

Players to BUY-LOW:

Saints RB, Alvin Kamara

Kamara owners have been worried about him not scoring for weeks, it’s been 5 games since his last touchdown. Taysom Hill just scored 3 touchdowns last week and with New Orleans on BYE this week, this is the time to take advantage of a panicking owner.

Titans RB, Tony Pollard

Just as I predicted, Pollard was squashed by the Vikings run defense, and the same should happen against Houston. After the Houston game, Pollard has a nice streak of susceptible defenses.

Falcons WR, Darnell Mooney

Mooney has his hamstring injury to deal with, but Mooney was just muted by the Denver defense and now going on BYE this week. Mooney isn’t a big name/underappreciated so he’ll be cheaper than other top-20 receivers. Weeks 13-16 are all dome games, and facing LAC (meh)-MIN-LV

Players to SELL-HIGH:

Colts QB, Anthony Richardson

Richardson didn’t look any better in this game than he has in any other game of his career, he just has a bunch of plays that end up lucky (receiver catches it) or unlucky (picked off). Richardson’s value is going to be artificially inflated this week by the media and analysts but there’s no way he was just magically fixed in two weeks. If you weren’t able to get rid of Richardson in the last few weeks, now is the time to do so.

Bears QB, Caleb Williams

This has a similar reasoning to Richardson, Caleb Williams threw for a touchdown finally which means he is now magically fixed as well.

Chiefs WR, Xavier Worthy

Worthy is a Mecole Hardman 2.0, but still has some of that aura from setting the 40-yard dash record and scoring a TD this week. Many people are still ‘in’ on Worthy given the fact he hasn’t been abandoned in redraft.

Lions WR, Jameson Williams

Williams is a more consistent version of Worthy. Jameson is always a Sell after having a big game. Moving Williams into something more consistent is always a great option, unless you have depth then Williams has some value as the ‘hope and a prayer’ option if you get Ja’Marr’d or Saquon’d.

Deep League/Dynasty Targets:

Broncos WR, DeVaughn Vele

Definitely more valuable than Mims who’s lower on the list…

Vele is so close to being a star, but Sean Payton and management in Denver are doing everything they can to not let it happen. Vele might have the best hands in the league right now, he’s been playing more and getting more targets, eventually, Vele can’t be held down for Franklin or Humphrey, but I’m not sure if it will be this season or next.

Titans QB, Will Levis

The right side of the Titans O-line is nonexistent, and if they fix that issue in the future he is going to be a stud, for real. He has been shining lately but not bringing in the TDs like Justin Herbert before the last few weeks.

Browns WR, Elijah Moore

I’ve talked a lot about Cleveland already, but I’m finally excited about something with that offense. Moore is the slot receiver for Cleveland, he’s averaging 5.8 recs, 55 yards, and 0.25 TDs since Winston took over. Facing the tough schedule against PIT-DEN-PIT Moore will be the easier throw. 

Broncos WR, Marvin Mims

As Nix has settled in, Mims has started to look like a real NFL receiver, and he’s getting involved in the run game. The more touches the better in fantasy football! Mims has 3 carries in each of his last two games. We’ll need the targeting to get higher for a higher degree of confidence in standard roster size 12 or 14-man leagues.

Giants QB, Tommy DeVito

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Daboll and the Giants set DeVito up to fail, they’ve stuck by Daniel Jones for so long, way too long, that might do everything they can to make DeVito and (potentially) Lock look even worse. If DeVito and Lock look horrific then their sticking by Daniel makes it ‘make sense’. 

If that’s not the case and they try to be successful then DeVito actually could become viable. He was pretty solid last year, especially when you consider that he was a UDFA and was immediately better than first overall pick Bryce Young.