Plays, Pests, and Prayers - Week 12
PLAYS
Quarterbacks:
Chargers QB Justin Herbert vs. BAL
Any QB that faces Baltimore has a chance to go off, and with a talent like Herbert, it’s even more likely. Herbert has thrown 2 TDs in 3 of his last 4, thrown for 275+ in 4 of his last 5, and ran for 30+ yards in 3 of his last 4.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. CAR
Patrick Mahomes going against a bad Carolina team, not much to read into for this one.
Runningbacks:
Buccaneers RB Rachaad White vs. NYG
Most people are projecting Bucky Irving to have a great game, but I think there’s room for both to have a nice game, especially against the weaker LBs that the Giants have. This should be a nice PPR game with a hope for 1+ scores in a game I think will be an unexpected shootout. Rachaad White is closer to a power back than Irving will be, so he gets the goalline looks.
Wide Receivers:
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. BAL
I did this with Pittsburgh last week and got bit for it, but Herbert is leaps and bounds ahead of Russ, and Ladd isn’t that much worse of a WR than Pickens. This is a prime spot for him to have a Cooper Kupp-esc game.
Tight Ends:
Chargers TE Will Dissly vs. BAL
I’ve already spoken a lot about Will Dissly and the opportunity the Chargers offense has in this game. The total for this game sits at 51 right now, so Vegas expects a lot of scoring, and so should we.
D/ST:
Commanders D/ST vs. DAL
This is an obvious one, any defense going up against Dallas is a nice matchup. This will likely be the last week of Cooper Rush as well so expect another boring game plan and 30+ pass attempts again.
PESTS
Quarterbacks:
Colts QB Anthony Richardson vs. DET
Detroit is already a tough matchup for any offense, but throw in an Anthony Richardson who’s streaky and can’t run anymore and people expect him to succeed? There’s not much opportunity to FF score in the air already and gets limited even further by his lack of rushing prowess. If the Lions keep rolling teams then AR will need to turn into a passer, which more often than not doesn’t work well.
Runningbacks:
Rams RB Kyren Williams vs. PHI
In the 3 games since the Rams have had both Kupp and Nacua in Kyren has not been a top-20 RB in any given week (27th, 22nd, 25th), and against a tough and getting tougher Philly defense, I don’t expect that to change. Kyren is also averaging less than 4 yards per carry and with a young and talented rookie behind him, I could see this being the week Blake Corum makes a real appearance.
Wide Receivers:
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill vs. NE
In two games, Christian Gonzalez has limited Tyreek Hill to 2 catches for 34 yards and has an INT. That's 1 catch per game for Hill when facing Gonzalez. The only thing that I think could give a pop for Hill is too much man coverage, as I discussed in a recap earlier this week, but I think it’s more likely that Tyreek Hill is blanketed by a corner he has praised highly in the past.
Tight Ends:
Vikings TE TJ Hockenson vs. CHI
Chicago has a very tough pass defense, and ranks 12th in points allowed to a TE, which doesn’t sound terrible, but that’s 6 FF-ppg.
D/ST:
Cardinals D/ST vs. SEA
While I think Arizona has a chance to score pretty well here, I’m also wary of Geno and DK Metcalf. DK went (7-70-0/9) on the 49ers defense, one that has been pretty hit or miss this year, and that is the same tale for Arizona. Hopefully, I burn myself with this pick, but I can see a reality where Geno throws for 300+ and a couple of scores.
PRAYERS
Quarterbacks:
Giants QB Tommy DeVito vs. TB
Tampa has been up there with Baltimore as a defense you want to attack in the passing game. There are a lot of different things at play in this matchup, but I’m backing the talented QB against a soft pass defense that is ALSO without their top corner Zyon McCollum. Tommy Cutlets played very well last season and is a nice runner of the ball, the Giants are going to be a theme in the PRAYER section.
Runningbacks:
Raiders RB Dylan Laube vs. DEN
I talked a lot about Laube in the Raiders recap, but this kid can play… he’s one of the best receiving backs in the league and he hasn’t been able to show the world yet. If White and Mattison are both out this could be the start of something great for the Vegas offense, and they won’t need to be so reliant on Brock Bowers in the passing game.
Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks vs. KC
I hate to put an RB against KC on this list, but Jonathon Brooks is very good. Another third risky PRAYER because we don’t know what his usage will be like, if he’s on a limited snap count, or any other problem you can think of. What I do know is that Jonathon Brooks is an amazing RB talent who is waiting to be unleashed into the league.
Wide Receivers:
Detroit WR Jameson Williams vs. IND
The Colts secondary has been banged up all year and has done a decent job with replacing stars like JuJu Brents, but the main focus of the Indy defense will be the run game and ARSB, and they don’t have the depth to control all of that. Is it too early to call this the ‘Jameson Williams Game’? Detroit still needs to make up for the 5 INT game if they want Goff back in the MVP race and against another weaker secondary, this is the time to do it.
Tight Ends:
Giants TE Theo Johnson vs. TB
I told you the Giants would be a theme in this PRAYER section, and here’s the other option. Johnson is in a great place right now, the best passer on the team just got the starting gig and the team is going to emphasize getting younger players time on the field. Theo Johnson is an athletic TE who hasn’t been used too much, but he’s the best receiving TE the Giants have, he’s in a nice spot for a boom against a weak defense and could add an unexpected wrinkle to the game plan this week.
D/ST:
Chargers D/ST vs. BAL
Hopefully, you’ve scooped up one or both of the TB and ARI defenses as I’ve been touting for 2-3 weeks now, but if you haven’t because you have the strong Chargers defense, I don’t think they’re a terrible option. LAC has allowed 20 or more points just twice this year, and the Baltimore offense has been shaky… if they can’t get Henry working then the offense doesn’t work.
