Plays, Pests, and Prayers - Week 14
PLAYS
Quarterback:
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. NYJ
Tua has been white hot lately, averaging 25.73 FF-points in his last three games. The Jets defense has collapsed this season and will be without Sauce Gardner who still commands respect despite his down season. I expect a lot of targets to go around in the nice Miami weather.
Runningback:
Bills RB James Cook vs. LAR
The Rams have allowed 125, 314 (PHI), and 156 rushing yards in each of their last three games, and Buffalo has adopted a run-centric offense this season.
Wide Receiver:
Titans WR Calvin Ridley vs. JAX
Jacksonville is terrible and Will Levis is starting to show the flashes of the QB I know is in there. This is also a revenge game for Ridley.
Tight End:
Buccaneers TE Cade Otton vs. LV (If no Mike Evans)
Cade Otton has been a nice option at TE since Mike Evans returned and should still start for most teams, but without Evans playing he would be a must-start over anyone but Brock Bowers. Otton averaged 19.7 FF-PPG in the 3 games without Evans.
Chargers TE Will Dissly vs. KC
The Chiefs have been weak against the TE and Will Dissly has been trending upwards for a few weeks as LAC has started to throw the ball more. This has been the key matchup targeted since I started talking about Dissly weeks ago.
D/ST:
Saints D/ST vs. NYG
The Giants are simply awful and should be targeted every week.
Seahawks D/ST vs. ARI
The Seattle Defense has been figuring out its identity for the last couple of weeks, and they held ARI to 6 points just a few weeks ago. The Mike McDonald hiring is finally starting to pay off.
PESTS
Quarterback:
49ers QB Brock Purdy vs. CHI
San Fran is too banged up to make much headway against this top defense. No Trent Williams, no CMC, Purdy isn’t 100%, and a couple of other plays are banged up as well… and you have all of those obstacles before diving headfirst into one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
Runningback:
Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs. LV
If Mike Evans is out, Bucky’s value takes a massive hit because there’s no great threat in the passing game without him… so teams can stack the box. Irving has also been putting up some nice numbers against bad run defenses inflating his overall perception.
Wide Receivers:
49ers WR Jauan Jennings vs. CHI
All of what I said for Brock impacts Jennings. He might be a low-low-low end option in 14+ man PPR leagues, definitely not standard or even half-point.
Tight End:
Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth vs. CLE
‘Muth has been a fairly consistent TE option over the last month but I believe that will end this week. Cleveland’s defense against the TE ranks just outside of the top 10 in points allowed.
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts vs. MIN
Kyle Pitts is the most frustrating TE possible ever in fantasy football, and Kirk Cousins is fading fast… Minnesota is middle of the pack when it comes to TEs scoring against them, but they have only allowed 2 TDs to the position this season, so it’s unlikely he lucks into a score.
D/ST:
Chiefs D/ST vs. LAC
The Chiefs defense isn’t as good as it used to be, and the Chargers are a well-oiled machine of an offense that wears down defenses behind a strong run game and short passing game.
PRAYERS
Quarterback:
Will Levis vs. JAX
Levis has been on the rise and is a 100% viable starter in fantasy this week against a soft Jacksonville pass-D.
Aidan O’Connell vs. TB
The Tampa defense allows the third most yards to QBs, and T-7 for passing TDs allowed. This is a nice matchup for AOC, but it’s still backing the Raiders offense… proceed with caution.
Runningback:
49ers RB Isaac Guerendo vs. CHI
While the Niners pass game will be stunted, the Bears can be got on the ground… and SF has a lot of issues in regards to the passing game just from injuries. I think Guerendo is going to have a 20+ touch day whether it’s rushing, screens, swing passes, etc. Guerendo is starting in every league I have him.
Raiders RB Sincere McCormick vs. TB
McCormick has caught Antonio Pierce’s eyes and that means he’s all they will go with in the run game, like Mattison before him and White last season. McCormick had fringe RB1 touch counts last week as the “bell of the ball” back in LV, especially in PPR as TB has a strong run but weak pass defense.
Saints RB Kendre Miller vs. NYG
I expect there to be a blowout because it's the Giants, and that should mean some garbage time Kendre Miller. Saints HC Darren Rizzi has been hyping up Miller as well and he could be a “Taysom Hill replacement” as they discussed… but can you really fill that role?
Wide Receivers:
Cowboys WR KaVontae Turpin vs. CIN
Turpin is the second best receiver on Dallas and the best non-CeeDee option at any other position. Turpin has wheels and received some TD chances early in the game last week… I think those will hit this week against a terrible defense in Cincy.
Tight End:
Saints TE Juwan Johnson vs. NYG
The Taysom targets and a trusted receiver are gone, which leaves Juwan Johnson, Alvin Kamara, and maybe you can throw MVS in there? A TE being one of two trusted targets is always something to be interested in, and Johnson had a nice FF-game last week.
D/ST:
Jaguars D/ST vs. TEN
The Titans O-line is terrible so there are a lot of sack opportunities, and maybe Will Levis does something goofy and they get a defensive TD.
