Plays, Pests, and Prayers - NFL Week 9
PLAYS
Quarterbacks:
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. TB
- If 2024 Kirk Cousins can torch the Buccaneers pass defense, then Patrick Mahomes should have a career day. The Chiefs offense has been playing better lately and DeAndre Hopkins will have had another week in the Andy Reid system. A big double-digit win against a weak Tampa team will quiet a lot of the haters.
Broncos QB Bo Nix vs. BAL
- Baltimore is coming into this game with the #32 ranked pass defense in terms of yards against, and the Broncos offense is starting to take off. Jameis Winston just made Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore look like legit receivers, and I’m sure a more reserved QB in Bo Nix will be able to do the same to their weak receiving group.
Runningbacks:
Titans RB Tony Pollard vs. NE
- The Patriots defense has not maintained the level of play they had back in Weeks 1 and 2, but people respect them the same because of their reputation for the past 25 years. The Titans offense is putrid and the handcuff for Pollard, Tyjae Spears is out. There are doubts Pollard plays so Julius Chestnut makes the list as a Prayer.
Wide Receivers:
Colts WR Josh Downs vs. MIN
- With Joe Flacco at QB Josh Downs is averaging 8 receptions, 67.5 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. Flacco is just what this Colts offense needs to be FF-viable. The Vikings pass defense is #30 in yards allowed as a sweet bonus to this already favorable play.
Tight Ends:
Buccaneers TE Cade Otton vs. KC
- Excluding Brock Bowers, Cade Otton has been the best-looking TE on tape and he has been white-hot since Evans and Godwin went down. The one place you can attack KC reliably this season has been with the TE.
D/ST:
Saints D/ST vs. CAR
- This is a must-win for New Orleans and they luckily draw the Panthers who are once again being led by Bryce Young. Bryce Young has always been an auto-target with the opposing defense and that doesn’t change here.
PESTS
Quarterbacks:
Browns QB Jameis Winston vs. LAC
- The Chargers have arguably the best pass defense in the league… They are 9th in yards allowed and 3rd in passing TDs allowed. The Browns offense comes back to Earth and we nget to see what they’re made of.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. BUF
- Tua came back last week and had a classic Tua game, a low-200-yard passing game, and 1 TD. The Bills have some sneaky good corners, and defenses are more afraid of a big play than ever before. I don’t believe Tua is accurate enough to fit the ball into the tight spaces necessary against a solid secondary.
Runningbacks:
Packers RB Josh Jacobs vs. DET
- Opposing defenses aren’t afraid of Malik Willis throwing the ball, so they crowd the line to try and stop the run, be it Willis or Jacobs. Facing that scheme from an already Top 5 run defense will not be easy.
Wide Receivers:
Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr vs. CHI
- Marvin Harrison has had a shaky rookie season up until this point, last week was the first game he made an impact in more than just one quarter. I already don’t believe in MHJ but the Cardinals have been relying more on James Conner and less on Kyler Murray. On top of that, Chicago has allowed the least passing TDs and is 11th in passing yards allowed.
Bills WR Amari Cooper vs. MIA
- Amari Cooper is dealing with a wrist injury, and he’s learning a new playbook, and trying to build a connection with a new QB… there’s too much negative going on for me to buy a good Cooper game. Cooper is probably the 3rd or 4th best receiver in Buffalo when healthy, behind Shakir-Coleman-Kincaid.
Tight Ends:
Packers TE Tucker Kraft vs. DET
- This is a dampened passing game playing outside, in Wisconsin, in November. Kraft has been great after the catch this year but the Lions have been stellar against the TE this year.
D/ST:
Chiefs D/ST vs. TB
- Baker turns the ball over at a higher clip than anyone else this season, but he’s also throwing for yards and TDs at a higher rate than any other QB in the league. If Baker continues on the path he’s going down you don’t want to start a defense that is guaranteed to allow 14+ points and 275+ yards.
PRAYERS
Quarterbacks:
Colts QB Joe Flacco, vs. MIN
- The obvious one is Joe Flacco, he has been absolutely on fire as a starter for the past two seasons. In his 8 games between the two, he has five 300-yard games and 2+ TDs in every single one. The Vikings defense is weak as is which is why we have Josh Downs as a Play, and now Joe Flacco as a Prayer. If Flacco were owned more he’d be a slam dunk Play.
Packers QB Malik Willis vs. DET
- I’ve slandered the Packers offense enough so it’s about time I say something nice. Malik Willis has been fantasy-phenomenal this season, and he powers a lot of that success with his legs. The Lions only faced one mobile QB this season, Kyler Murray back in Week 3, who ran for 45 yards on 5 attempts. Willis will almost certainly run more than 5 times this game and he could reach some crazy rushing totals.
Runningbacks:
Titans RB Julius Chestnut vs. NE
- If Pollard is out, everything I wrote about him in the Plays slides right on over to Chestnut. Pollard is likely out this week so this could be a lead back against the 22nd ranked run defense. What’s there not to love?
Miami RB Jaylen Wright vs. BUF
- Mike McDaniel has stressed since after the Cardinals game that they want to get Jaylen Wright more involved. I think ultimately the Dolphins trade Mostert to SF if Miami loses this game. That will be the real sign that CMC isn’t ready and Wright is.
Wide Receivers:
Jaguars WR Parker Washington vs. PHI
- The Eagles pass defense has been finding their footing as of late, but Trevor Lawrence can’t only throw to Evan Engram, so Parker Washington in the slot is the next logical target.
Tight Ends:
Saints TE Taysom Hill vs. CAR
- This is a must-win game for the Saints, and in those games, they rely on Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill to bring them the win. New Orleans got a lucky game against Carolina but they can’t dance around, they need to beat down the Panthers for the team morale, and no Shaheed, Miller, or Jamaal Williams means Hill will see a lot of opportunity on the ground and through the air.
D/ST:
Cardinals D/ST vs. CHI
- I don’t respect the Bears offense at all, and the Arizona defense can’t be bad if most of their games are boring, low-scoring affairs. I’m fading Caleb Williams and the Bears after an unlucky Hail Mary loss last week.
Rams D/ST vs. SEA
- Seattle has already confirmed that DK Metcalf is out this week, which means Darious Williams will be able to play from one side all game, effectively shutting down half the field from Geno. I suspect Seattle will run the ball more since they don’t trust their receivers not named DK.
