Handicapping Week 9 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
All picks ATS: (58-62-3) 48.33%
Top 5 ATS: (19-21) 47.5%
7-9 across all games this week and 2-3 Top 5 thanks to the Dolphins choking and the Giants having the best and worst 4th quarter ever. Survivor picks stay hot even though I would have technically been eliminated after Week 3. Other teams like Green Bay and KC won but couldn’t cover, GB lost by the hook. All part of the game.
Top Picks this week: DEN, DAL, LAC, WAS, LAR
Survivor Pick this week: WAS
Survivor Picks: NO (W), IND (L), CIN (L), PHI (L), CHI (W), HOU (W), DEN (W), LAC (W)
All games ATS:
HOU at NYJ -2
Pick: NYJ -2
- I have no reason for this pick, I’m not betting it tonight, just a gut feeling.
DEN at BAL -9
Pick: DEN +9
- Seriously? 9-point favorites over the best defense in the league? The Broncos to lose by 3 thank you very much.
LV at CIN -7
Pick: CIN -7
- Cincy is shaky but I can’t bring myself to back the Raiders. I’m expecting Burrow to get hot any game now, this should be the catalyst.
NO -7 at CAR
Pick: CAR +7
- This pick only works if it’s Jake Haener at QB for New Orleans… any other QB (Rattler or Carr) this pick flips to the NO side.
DAL at ATL -3
Pick: DAL +3 UNDERDOG WIN
- All of the Falcons wins are in the NFC South, and Dallas needs a win to stay alive in the NFC East. I don’t think Kirk Cousins is capable of playing good football against any team other than the Buccaneers. Check out my tweet from early on Thursday: [figure out how to inlay tweets]
MIA at BUF -6
Pick: BUF -6
- Honestly, this feels like a game Miami could cover and might even win outright, it’s just one of those ‘things’ with intradivisional games. After their choke last week, I can’t back them again, even though it’s probably the right side to be on.
LAC -1.5 at CLE
Pick: LAC -1.5
- Another Jameis game, and the Browns really shouldn’t have won last week against Baltimore. Did they hang with them? Sure. Did the Ravens also drop 3 interceptions? Yes.
WAS -4 at NYG
Pick: WAS -4
- I don’t know how Brian Daboll still has his job, the Giants offense has been embarrassing all season, and is hitting it’s lowest point right now. On the other hand, Washington is improving on defense and the offense is as electric as any other offense in the NFL.
CHI at ARI -1.5
Pick: CHI +1.5 UNDERDOG WIN
- Arizona is coming off of two “How did they win that” games, meanwhile Chicago is coming off of a fluky hail-mary loss. Let’s bet on a reversal of fortune.
JAX at PHI -7.5
Pick: JAX +7.5
- Philly is hot right now, and the Jaguars just lost Christian Kirk. I don’t think the Jaguars are as bad as they’re made out to be, and Philly might get caught looking ahead to their two big NFC East matchups following this game.
LAR -1.5 at SEA
Pick: LAR -1.5
- This almost feels like a trap, meaning Seattle will win, but the Rams are getting healthy and are the hot team right now. Seattle might be without DK again and they won’t have enough on offense or defense to handle the Rams.
DET -3.5 at GB
Pick: GB +3.5
- Detroit just came out and smacked Tennessee and barely had to throw to do it. That’s an incredibly impressive feat, and one they are being overvalued for. I think Malik Willis should cover this 3.5 that would probably move to +4.5 or even 5 come game time. There is positive news that Jordan Love will play and if so I think GB has a real shot at upsetting the Lions.
IND at MIN -5.5
Pick: MIN -5.5
- Simply playing the trends on this game… Indianapolis is a staggering 7-1 against the spread this season, meanwhile, Minnesota is 5-2 ATS. These are two of the best covering teams in the league but Indy is too good.
TB at KC -8.5
Pick: KC -8.5
- Same thing I did with Minnesota, just picking the Chiefs every game.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (58-62-3) 48.33%
Top 5 ATS: (19-21-0) 47.5%
All Picks ATS, on the ML: (60-63)
Calling dogs to win: (8-7)
Away Favorites: (12-11)
Home Underdogs: (6-5)
