Handicapping Week 8 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
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All picks ATS: (51-53-3) 49%
Top 5 ATS: (17-18) 48.6%
7-8 across all games this week but another great Top 5, going 4-1 in back-to-back weeks. The Survivor Denver Broncos and the only underdog I predicted hit as well so a solid week all around but I still need to iron out my ‘All picks ATS’. Let’s see if I can keep this momentum.
Top Picks this week: MIA, GB, LAC, BUF, NYG
Survivor Pick this week: BUF
Survivor Picks: NO (W), IND (L), CIN (L), PHI (L), CHI (W), HOU (W), DEN (W)
All games ATS:
MIN -2.5 at LAR
Pick: LAR +2.5
- This is a strange game with a strange line, just picking the Rams because the Vikings just played the Lions, this is a short week, and Kupp is back. Don’t actually bet a side on this game it’s not worth it.
ARI at MIA -3.5
Pick: MIA -3.5
- Arizona just won on primetime and the Dolphins need a win. A desperate Dolphins team being buoyed by Tua should overcome a below-average Cardinals.
NYJ -7 at NE
Pick: NYJ -7
- This game will go one of two ways, either the Jets blow out a bad New England team should, in a win-or-go-home matchup, or New England pulls off a 13-10 type of victory.
ATL -2.5 at TB
Pick: TB +2.5 UNDERDOG WIN
- Everybody is counting out the Buccaneers after losing their two best offensive players, but the Falcons haven’t shown much prowess this year. I think Tampa fights and likely wins outright, then the injuries impact them until Evans is out.
TEN at DET -11.5
Pick: DET -11.5
- Wow, this might be the biggest spread I’ve ever seen. The Titans have presumably given up on their season and still have Rudolph in at QB. With both of those in mind, it’s Detroit by a million… I hope.
GB -3.5 at JAX
Pick: GB -3.5
- The books have been overrating Jacksonville and underrating Green Bay this entire season. Three weeks in a row of GB being in my top 5.
IND at HOU -5
Pick: HOU -5
- Houston coming off a loss, look out Colts fans.
BAL -8.5 at CLE
Pick: CLE +8.5
- A change at QB and in play-caller usually works in a team’s favor the first game, there’s no tape on either of those guys this season. If the Browns go with Jameis this should be a very fun game to watch.
PHI at CIN -2.5
Pick: CIN -2.5
- The two most recent teams to beat the Giants, Philly did it in blowout fashion but I don’t believe in them yet… Philly’s defense has looked better but is that just the Daniel Jones Effect?
BUF -3 at SEA
Pick: BUF -3
- Backing a road favorite, Seattle is likely without DK Metcalf and their top 3 corners this week.
NO at LAC -7.5
Pick: LAC -7.5
- This is a nice bounce-back spot for LA after losing a close one on MNF.
CHI at WAS -2.5
Pick: CHI +2.5 UNDERDOG WIN
- The great Caleb Williams v Jayden Daniels showdown is unlikely, and because of that, I’m backing the Bears. Washington with Mariota still might be a better offense but the lack of defense will be their downfall.
CAR at DEN -9.5
Pick: CAR +9.5
- Everything is going wrong for Carolina and everything is going right for Denver. The universe is going to even things out for these teams and with the move back to Bryce Young people will be fading Carolina… let’s be on the other side of that.
KC -9.5 at LV
- KC keeps winning and they’re actually covering spreads this year, unlike in the past. Against Minshew and maybe even Desmond Ridder, KC should roll behind Mahomes-Hunt-Hopkins.
DAL at SF -4
Pick: SF -4
- The Niners always beat Dallas and I don’t think that will change. Both teams are beat up but the Niners have a better core of players than Dallas.
NYG at PIT -6
Pick: NYG +6
- This should be an incredibly boring and close game that features two bad-mid offenses and two of the better defenses in the NFL. Steelers should win but I don’t see them covering a TD.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (51-53-3) 49%
Top 5 ATS: (17-18-0) 48.6%
All Picks ATS, on the ML: (44-50)
Calling dogs to win: (8-7)
Away Favorites: (11-7)
Home Underdogs: (4-4)
