Handicapping Week 7 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
All picks ATS: (44-45-3) 49.4%
Top 5 ATS: (13-17) 43%
Just as I predicted I branded myself a fade and what do I do? Go 4-1 on my top 5, 9-5 across the board, and my survivor Houston Texans win by 20. Good luck figuring out what do with my picks this week.
Top Picks this week: DEN, GB, WAS, PIT, BAL
Survivor Pick this week: DEN
Survivor Picks: NO (W), IND (L), CIN (L), PHI (L), CHI (W), HOU (W)
All games ATS:
DEN -2.5 at NO
Pick: DEN -2.5 SURVIVOR
- We don’t often get primetime blowouts unless the Giants play Philly or Dallas, but I think we could have one here. New Orleans is so beaten and battered this game won’t be close. Denver’s defense might even score this game.
NE at JAX -5.5
Pick: NE +5.5
- I think Jacksonville will win but Pats cover. I don’t have faith in either team right now but Jacksonville is playing their second game in London and they’re likely playing for HC Doug Pederson’s job.
MIA at IND -3
Pick: IND -3
- I can’t back the Dolphins with their negative QBs. I would feel better if Flacco was at QB for the Colts but maybe Richardson had his head screwed back on. I have no trust in either team to cover the spread.
SEA at ATL -3
Pick: ATL -3
- Another pick I don’t believe in… Seattle is due for a victory after dropping 4 straight but it feels better to be on the Falcons.
HOU at GB -3
Pick: GB -3
- Houston thinks they’re good but they scuffle around with bad teams too much. Green Bay, on the other hand, is for real good.
CIN -5.5 at CLE
Pick: CLE +5.5
- I’m on so many favorites and I don’t have faith in either of these teams to cover the spread so I’m backing the underdog. Maybe Amari Cooper's leaving is addition by subtraction… he can’t catch anything this year.
PHI -3 at NYG
Pick: NYG +3
- This would have been an underdog win/best bet if Andrew Thomas weren’t ruled out for the season. He’s one of the best blockers in the league. The Giants get Nabers this week and Philly’s pass rush isn’t that great so Big Blue still has a chance.
DET at MIN -1.5
Pick: MIN -1.5
- This should be the game that end Minnesota’s winning streak but Aidan Hutchinson was a big key to that. It would have finally been a good pass rusher to try and disrupt the force field Darnold has around him, but he is gone for the year with one of the most brutal leg injuries I’ve seen on a football field. I’m just going to keep riding the Vikings until it doesn’t work.
TEN at BUF -9.5
Pick: TEN +9.5
- Nothing against Buffalo but 10 points is too many points to give in the NFL unless you are playing the Panthers.
CAR at WAS -8
Pick: WAS -8
- Washington good. Carolina bad.
LV at LAR -6.5
Pick: LV +6.5
I don’t believe in this pick whatsoever but the Rams linebackers are shaky which puts Brock Bowers in a good spot to succeed. We also don’t know how much Kupp will play.
KC at SF -1.5
Pick: KC +1.5
- The Chiefs are due for a loss any game now and I’m sure most people think it will be in the Super Bowl rematch… I think the Chiefs pull one out thanks to the refs again.
NYJ -2 at PIT
Pick: PIT +2 UNDERDOG WIN
- This is a complete overreaction to the Jets acquiring Davante Adams. The Jets defense has serious issues and Steelers defense is better than the Jets O with the way they utilize their talent.
BAL -3.5 at TB
Pick: BAL -3.5
- Ultimately settled on Baltimore. This should be a shootout despite it being on primetime, but I think the Ravens prevail. The Bucs are too weak on defense to stop Lamar and Henry.
LAC -2.5 at ARI
Pick: LAC -2.5
- The Chargers are better offensively and defensively than the Cardinals.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (35-40-3) 46.6%
Top 5 ATS: (9-16-0) 36%
All Picks ATS, on the ML: (44-50)
Calling dogs to win: (7-7)
Away Favorites: (9-6)
Home Underdogs: (3-2)
