Handicapping Week 6 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the duration of the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
All picks ATS: (35-40-3) 46.6%
Top 5 ATS: (9-16) 36%
I finally got my survivor pick right, about time. This was another barely positive week but positive nonetheless. It’s official, my Top 5 should be complete fades, unfortunately. Now that I thought that and if I fade them I’m sure I’ll go 5-0 on picks, and 0-5 on fades this week.
Top Picks this week: SF, HOU, GB, TB, NYJ
Survivor Pick this week: HOU
Survivor Picks: NO (W), IND (L), CIN (L), PHI (L), CHI (W),
All games ATS:
SF -3.5 at SEA
Pick: SF -3.5
- The 49ers are just the better team and need a win before hosting KC next week. I don’t think this is a look-ahead game for SF, they need every win they can get.
JAX at CHI -1.5
Pick: CHI -1.5
- The Bears are starting to figure out their offense and are protecting Caleb’s mental game with a simple, quick offense. That paired with already very good defense should be too much for the Jaguars to get past.
WAS at BAL -6.5
Pick: WAS +6.5
- Washington is the hottest team in the league and 6.5 points is way too much to give them. Derrick Henry will probably have a big game early but the Commies offense will force Lamar to throw.
HOU -7 at NE
Pick: HOU -7
- Rookie debuts are always rough, and I think it’s more likely the Texans play well than the Patriots with a new QB and no Stevenson.
CLE at PHI -9.5
Pick: CLE +9.5
- The Eagles are not good enough to get nearly 10 points on any team. They are too flawed defensively to reliably blow out any team.
IND at TEN -2.5
Pick: TEN -2.5
- This pick is only good if Trey Sermon is the running back for Indy. If Goodson or Taylor get the nod at RB then the Colts probably upset Tennessee.
ARI at GB -5
Pick: GB -5
- The Packers are better and the Cardinals came away with a lucky win last week. Teams don’t usually follow up lucky wins with another.
TB -2.5 at NO
Pick: TB -2.5
- The Saints have a debuting QB and Tampa is getting their two best defenders back for this game.
PIT -3 at LV
Pick: LV +3 UNDERDOG WIN
- I don’t believe in this pick at all, but there are so many road favorites they can’t all cover/win.
LAC -3 at DEN
Pick: LAC -3
- I hate taking so many road favorites but LAC has a good defense and better offense than Denver.
DET -3 at DAL
Pick: DET -3
- Another road favorite, but the Cowboys are still without Parsons and Lawrence on defense, and have no run game.
ATL -6 at CAR
Pick: CAR +6
- All five of Atlanta’s games have been decided by one possession and there’s no reason to assume that will change here. The new and improved Panthers should be able to keep it close.
CIN -3.5 at NYG
Pick: NYG +3.5
- I don’t have faith in the Giants to play two good games back-to-back, but I don’t think I have faith that the Bengals will do that too.
BUF -2.5 at NYJ
Pick: NYJ +2.5 UNDER DOG WIN
- A lot of moving parts for the Jets which means they’ll keep their game plan simple and run their best plays. They don’t have enough time to prepare and outthink themselves. Buffalo also doesn’t have intel on the new play-caller or Saleh-less Jets.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (35-40-3) 46.6%
Top 5 ATS: (9-16-0) 36%
All Picks ATS, on the ML: (36-42)
Calling dogs to win: (7-7)
Away Favorites: (3-6)
Home Underdogs: (3-3)
