Handicapping Week 5 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the duration of the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
All picks ATS: (28-34-2) 45.2%
Top 5 ATS: (8-12) 40%
Last week was just sub .500 and I had a nice rally after the 1 o’clock games. Two weeks in a row where I nearly reverse sweep the early games then sweep the later games. Still waiting to get into a groove but I think I have found it this week. 2-0 predicting underdog wins as well.
Top Picks this week: TB, BUF, GB, NO, PIT
Survivor Pick this week: CHI
Survivor Picks: NO (W), IND (L), CIN (L), PHI (L), CHI
[I should really stop doing this, what a terrible run I’m on]
All games ATS:
TB at ATL -2.5
Pick: TB +2.5 UNDERDOG WIN
- Atlanta was lucky to beat the Saints last week and were gifted 14 points. I like to fade a team after a massive blowout victory and after they put together a game-winning drive.
NYJ at MIN -2.5
Pick: MIN -2.5
- I’m just going to keep picking Minnesota until it stops working. I’m done trying to figure out this team for betting.
MIA at NE -1
Pick: NE -1
- Both teams are bad so I’m going to back the home team with the better QB
CAR at CHI -3.5
Pick: CHI -3.5
- Carolina isn’t good and the Bears have a very strong defense. I don’t believe in this pick enough to actually wager money on it.
IND at JAX -3
Pick: IND +3
- The more I look at this game the more I think it’s a fair line… my initial reaction was shocked IND wasn’t the favorite but with Taylor out and being on the road I think it’s fair. Taking the points in an even-ish matched game just makes sense
BUF -1.5 at HOU
Pick: BUF -1.5
- Buffalo was just humiliated in primetime by Baltimore, the perfect week to bet on a good team is after a primetime loss. Houston almost lost to Jacksonville, a team the Bills crushed… if you want to use that as a litmus test.
BAL -2 at CIN
Pick: CIN +2
- Baltimore is everyone’s favorite team and this is a close line that I’m sure the public will hammer. Fading the easy pick and choosing Cincinnati.
CLE at WSH
Pick: WSH -3.5
- No reason to believe this offense will slow down… they haven’t shown any signs of it yet.
LV at DEN
Pick: DEN -2.5
- The Broncos are one of my favorite teams this year and I root for them every week. It seems like they are starting to put things together. The Raiders are doing the exact opposite.
ARI at SF -7.5
Pick: ARI +7.5
- Arizona was just embarrassed, same logic as the Buffalo bet… take the team that was embarrassed the week prior to bounce back.
NYG at SEA -6.5
Pick: NYG +6.5
- Every team that has played Detroit has lost the next week, and Seattle has one less day to recover. The Giants defense isn’t terrible and Nabers has opened up something in their offense.
GB -3 at LAR
Pick: GB -3
- The Rams are still very injured and the Packers are coming back to full strength. Love wasn’t 100% last week but still put on a show, I don’t expect this week to be any different.
DAL at PIT -1.5
Pick: PIT -1.5
- Dallas is struggling and will be without their two best defensive linemen
NO at KC -5.5
Pick: NO +5.5 UNDERDOG WIN
- The Saints are not a joke of a team and 5.5 points seems almost disrespectful to the season they’ve put together. The Chiefs are lucky to be undefeated and haven’t blown out any teams thus far.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (38-34-2) 45.2%
Top 5 ATS: (8-12-0) 40 %
All Picks ATS, on the ML: (29-35)
Calling dogs to win: (7-5)
Away Favorites: (2-6)
Home Underdogs: (3-2)
