Handicapping Week 4 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the duration of the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
Last week was a slaughter and my worst ATS week to date. That’ll happen in gambling but the key is to not make a habit of it. This has been such a strange start to the NFL season, I’m hoping things return to normal and we can crush it.
All picks ATS: (21-26-1) 43.8%
Top 5 ATS: (7-8) 46.67%
Top Picks this week: NYJ, PHI, HOU, NE, DET
Survivor Pick this week: PHI
Survivor Picks: NO (W), IND (L), CIN (L), PHI
All Week 3 games ATS:
DEN at NYJ -7.5
Pick: NYJ -7.5
- I think the Jets are a better version of the Broncos. Denver isn’t there just yet and Aaron Rodgers’ experience will be the difference maker in navigating these two strong defenses.
CIN -4.5 at CAR
Pick: CAR +4.5
- I’m not sure who to pick so I’m just going to take the points.
PHI -1.5 at TB
Pick: PHI -1.5
- Tampa Bay is so banged up but so is Philadelphia. Saquon and the TB O-line (or lack thereof) will be the difference makers.
LAR at CHI -3
Pick: LAR +3
- I’m a Rams believer and a Caleb denier so there’s definitely bias in this pick. The Rams may drop this game after having just won their biggest game of the season.
NO at ATL -2.5
Pick: ATL -2.5
- I think this might turn into a shootout, it depends on if Shaheed and Carr can connect this week. I’m just picking Atlanta because they’re the home team.
JAX at HOU -6.5
Pick: HOU -6.5
- Fading Jacksonville all year. They really want to show the world that they’re the worst team in the NFL.
MIN at GB -2.5
Pick: MIN +2.5
- I keep picking against Sam Darnold and keep losing so I’m going to side with Darnold. This probably means he’ll “see ghosts” this week and GB womps them.
PIT -1.5 at IND
Pick: IND +1.5 UNDER DOG WIN
- This pick solely relies on what version of Anthony Richardson we get. We’ve seen insanely good more than insanely bad throughout his career so I’m siding - not betting - on that.
NE at SF -10.5
Pick: NE +10.5
- No other reason than 10.5 points is a lot to win by in the NFL.
WAS at ARI -3.5
Pick: ARI -3.5
- The highest total of the week, Washington’s defense won’t be able to handle the Cardinals offense.
KC -7 at LAC
Pick: KC -7
- 7 points is a lot to lay on the road but the Chargers do not have an offensive line.
CLE at LV -1.5
Pick: LV -1.5
- Not betting real money, both of these teams are really bad.
BUF at BAL -2.5
Pick: BAL -2.5
- Two of the top teams in the AFC, I feel like it’s better to side with the home team rather than the one traveling.
TEN at MIA -1
Pick: TEN +1 UNDER DOG WIN
- I keep getting burnt by Tennessee. Both of these teams are very banged up but the Titans have the better QB.
SEA at DET -3.5
Pick: DET -3.5
- The Seahawks are a fraud and will be exposed against one of the top teams in the NFL. Seattle is pretend good, Detroit is for real good.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (21-26-1) 43.8%
Top 5 ATS: (7-8) 46.67%
All Picks straight up: (20-28)
Calling dogs to win: (5-5)
Away Favorites: (2-6-0)
Home Underdogs: (1-2-0)
