Handicapping Week 3 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
All picks ATS: (16-15-1) 51.6%
Top 5 ATS: (4-6) 40%
Top Picks this week: JAX, SF, NYG, PHI, CAR
Survivor Pick this week: CIN
Survivor Picks: NO (W), IND (L)
Week 2 was another .500 week ATS but my underdog wins (1-1) were a bit better. Week 2 was strange as there were 7 underdogs that won straight up. I was only 1-4 in my top picks so there’s more room for improvement there.
All Week 3 games ATS:
NE at NYJ -6
Pick: NE +6
- Posting this on Friday but this was my pick for the game, I need to show transparency on all wins and losses.
DEN at TB
Pick: TB -6
- This will be the easiest defense Denver will have faced this season: a TB defense weakened by injury, however, the Tampa defense has stood tall in the red zone allowing only 1 TD in 7 trips by Detroit last week. Denver has struggled to convert in the red zone this season.
HOU -2 at MIN
Pick: HOU -2
- I have no idea how to handicap this Minnesota team, I’m picking Houston because I have to make a pick.
LAC at PIT
Pick: LAC +1.5 UNDERDOG WIN
- Two slow offenses and a good defense in Pittsburgh, this will be a low scoring game. The best bet would be LAC in a teaser rather than taking the +1.5 straight-up. Pittsburgh was 9-2 in 1 score game last year and 2-0 this year.
PHI at NO -2.5
Pick: PHI +2.5 UNDERDOG WIN
- Not sure who to pick in this matchup, this fully depends on Philly’s ability to keep up with New Orleans, since their defense is abysmal. I’d recommend the over 49.5 rather than picking a side.
GB at TEN -1.5
Pick: TEN -1.5
- Tennessee continues to impress defensively and should limit the Packers run game. Malik Willis continues to struggle passing and if the Titans can avoid a third blocked kick they should win handedly. If Love plays I don’t recommend betting this game.
NYG at CLE -6.5
Pick: NYG +6.5
- The Giants are in a must win spot, and they might win outright. Cleveland and NYG are two of the bottom feeder teams in the league and they’re giving us 6 points. The Giants would have won their game last week if they had a kicker… and the line would be closer if that had happened.
CHI at IND
Pick: CHI +1.5
- The Colts defense is extremely banged up and Chicago will try to run more, especially against a defense that just lost their starting DT in Deforest Buckner. I hate this line and will not be betting this game.
MIA at SEA -4.5
Pick: MIA +4.5
- I believe this is too many points to lay on Seattle at home, their offense isn’t efficient enough to cover big spreads. The better bet is the under 42.5 as Miami reels in their offense with a backup starting
CAR at LV -5
Pick: CAR +5
- The change to Andy Dalton will be a huge boost for this offense, Bryce Young averages 13 ppg and Dalton in his one start last season scored 27 points in Seattle. Carolina has one of the best pass-blocking O-lines but no one is aware of it because of how bad Young has played.
BAL -1 at DAL
Pick: BAL -1
- I don’t believe in this pick whatsoever, the Ravens need a win to keep their season alive.
SF at LAR
Pick: SF -7
- I love the Rams but their offense is too banged up to compete with San Francisco. Hufanga is also back for his first game of the season.
DET -3 at ARI
Pick: DET -3
- Jared Goff is 17-8 ATS coming off of a straight up loss. Detroit moved the ball all day against TB last week but weren’t able to convert in the red zone (1/7). I don’t expect that trend to continue.
KC -3.5 at ATL
Pick: ATL +3.5
- The Chiefs got a lot of calls last week and I believe that the refs will ‘let them play’ more this week so tempers cool down. KC is coming off of two wins against their biggest AFC rivals and this may be a game they look past since it’s non-conference.
JAX at BUF -5
Pick: JAX +5 UNDERDOG WIN
- Jacksonville is due to play a good game eventually, and the Bills are banged up. Buffalo is coming off a blowout victory which doesn’t bode well for that team the next week.
WAS at CIN -7.5
Pick: CIN -7.5
- Cincinnati will play with a chip on their shoulder after losing to the refs last week, and both favorites won’t win with two MNF games. Everyone will be placing parlays with Cincy and Buffalo and I think Buffalo will be the team to let everyone down. Joe Burrow is 15-6-1 ATS coming off of a straight up loss.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (16-15-1) 51.6%
Top 5 ATS: (4-6) 40%
All Picks straight up: (15-17)
Underdog picks, on the ML: (4-11)
Calling dogs to win: (2-4)
Away Favorites: (2-3-0)
Home Underdogs: (1-2-0)
