Handicapping Week 2 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the duration of the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
All picks ATS: (8-6-2)
Top 5 ATS: (3-2)
Survivor Picks: NO (W),
Top Picks this week: IND, LAR, DEN, NYJ, SF
Survivor Pick this week: IND
Week 1 was a good start to the season. With all of the variance that can happen I’m happy being positive in both all picks and in my top 5. I see a lot of opportunity this week due to overreactions, a lot of low offensive outputs are keeping teams closer than they should be.
All games ATS:
BUF at MIA -2.5
Pick: BUF +2.5 UNDER DOG WIN
Buffalo is the better team with the better QB. The Bills should have won their game against Arizona by 2+ scores, and Miami should have lost by 2+ scores. Buffalo is also 10-1 in their last games.
LAC -6 at CAR
Pick: CAR +6
Not sure who to pick here, you have to expect a team that got blown up to bounce back but the Panthers are awful. Taking the points because LAC has to travel across the country.
NO at DAL -6
Pick: DAL -6
No one really knows how good either of these teams are because they both played bad teams. Cleveland is better than Carolina and the Cowboys are a force at home.
LV at BAL -8.5
Pick: BAL -8.5
Vegas played a tough game last week against the Chargers. LV is traveling and the Ravens are not a soft team like the Chargers. If you hit them hard, Baltimore tends to hit back harder.
TB at DET -7.5
Pick: DET -7.5
Detroit is one of the best teams in the league, and Tampa Bay has massive o-line issues that were covered up by a weaker but up-and-coming team in Washington. Those issues become exposed this weekend
NYJ -3.5 at TEN
Pick: NYJ -3.5
The Jets are a good team that got smacked on the road by the best team in the league. If the Jets defense was able to stop the niners passing attack Tennessee should be no problem.
SEA -3.5 at NE
Pick: NE +3.5
Another tough game, riding with the home team underdog that isn’t traveling.
CLE at JAX -3
Pick: CLE +3
Jacksonville played an okay game against Miami and should have won that matchup, but they lost their starting CB. If Deshaun leans on Amari Cooper Cleveland may win this one outright. Battle of two bad QBs
SF -5.5 at MIN
Pick: SF -5.5
The best team in the league against Sam Darnold.
IND -3 at GB
Pick: IND -3
The Colts were very close to beating the Texans last week, and GB is going to run with Malik Willis. I have no trust in Malik Willis, and he might not make it through the whole game.
NYG at WAS -1.5
Pick: NYG +1.5
I have no idea who to pick for this game. The Giants under Daniel Jones seem to only find success against Washington and after getting pummeled week 1 last year they won game 2. Washington might not be ready to be a top dog yet… This game means a lot for the future of both teams.
LAR at ARI -1
Pick: LAR +1 UNDER DOG WIN
The Rams have a lot of key injuries on the o-line and with Puka now going to be out. Arizona got dominated by Buffalo and had a Kick Return TD to make the score closer than reality. The Rams are such a deep and well coached team, they will win this one.
CIN at KC -5
Pick: CIN +5
Cincy always plays KC tough, but they also always come out cold. 50/50 chance of either of those happening so I’m going to take the points and avoid real betting this game.
PIT -2.5 at DEN
Pick: DEN +2.5
The Broncos offense was stifled by two INTs but this is another well coached team. Denver has the better QB and Head Coach.
CHI at HOU -6
Pick: HOU -6
Chicago was lucky to not lose by 10+ last week to Tennessee, and Caleb isn’t ready for the pros, Houston should bounce this team.
ATL at PHI -6.5
Pick: ATL +6.5
I’m expecting Atlanta to bounce back from their loss against Pittsburgh and keep it close. Teams after playing on TNF tend to come out slow the following game.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (8-6-2)
Top 5 ATS: (3-2)
All Picks ATS, on the ML: (8-8)
Underdog ATS picks, on ML: (2-7)
Calling underdogs to win outright: (1-3)
Away Favorites: (0-0-0)
Home Underdogs: (0-1)
