Handicapping Week 1 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the duration of the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
All picks ATS: (0-0-0)
Top 5 ATS: (0-0-0)
Top Picks this week: TEN, GB, LAC, DEN, NO
Survivor Pick this week: NO
Survivor Picks: NO
=====================================
All games ATS:
BAL +3 at KC
- Baltimore is coming off a strong offseason/preseason, and you have to expect the Ravens to come out angry after losing the AFCCG last year. I’ll take the points in a close game.
GB +3 at PHI UNDER DOG WIN
- Neutral site game in Brazil. Eagles defense was embarrassing during preseason, starters and depth players. This will likely be a blowout.
NE +8.5 at CIN
- Picking New England because I have to pick one. NE is outclassed in all aspects of the game, but this is a look ahead week for the Bengals who are facing KC next week.
ARI at BUF -6
- Picking because I have to. A lot of questions about these offenses that hopefully get answered this week.
JAX at MIA -3
- Jacksonville is one of the worst constructed rosters in the league, and if the MIA defense is anywhere close to as good as they were last year, Jacksonville should be manhandled.
HOU at IND +2.5
- Picking IND because I have to, this game is a toss up.
TEN +3.5 at CHI UNDERDOG WIN
- I have been betting this game all offseason on the side of the Titans. Caleb Williams making his debut against some of the top corners in the league. Tennessee should win a low-scoring game behind their revamped o-line.
PIT +3 at ATL
- Picking because I have to, both teams are starting old QBs and I expect growing pains for both sides. Backing the better defense.
MIN at NYG +1.5
- If JJM was starting for Minnesota this would be a different story. Once again backing the better defense but this time at home.
CAR at NO -4
- Carolina is awful and the Saints should have an improved offense this year.
DEN +6 at SEA
- Seattle will win this game but I think the Broncos will cover 6 points. If this weren’t the Bo Nix debut I would consider taking Broncos ML
LV at LAC -3
- Both teams have new coaches, one with tons of college and professional experience, one without that. Backing Herbert and Harbaugh is a no-brainer.
DAL +2.5 at CLE UNDERDOG WIN
- Without home field advantage Vegas sees this a pk. I believe Deshaun is going to have an awful year and the Cowboys will come out firing for their second opener in a row.
WAS +3 at TB
- Commanders had one of the best off-seasons this year and ALSO grabbed one of the two QBs I think are ready to start week 1. Not every rookie is going to lose their debut (Williams/Nix/Daniels) so I’m backing Daniels who I believe is in the best position to win now.
LAR at DET -3.5
- Picking the Lions because I have to. Both of these teams will be so good this year, backing Detroit at home.
NYJ +4.5 at SF UNDERDOG WIN
- Jets have the better defense and potentially an equal offense, a lot of stars in this game but Aiyuk hasn’t had enough time to warm up + he’ll deal with Sauce Gardner all night.
=====================================
Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (0-0-0)
Top 5 ATS: (0-0-0)
All Picks ATS, on the ML: (0-0-0)
Underdogs ATS, on the ML: (0-0-0)
Away Favorites: (0-0-0)
Home Underdogs: (0-0-0)
Calling Underdogs for a win: (0-0-0)
