Handicapping Week 10 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
All picks ATS: (66-69-3) 48.33%
Top 5 ATS: (22-23) 47.5%
Another week where I can’t break-away from mediocrity, 8-7 across all games and 3-2 on the top picks.
Top Picks this week: CIN, MIN, PIT, NO, DET
Survivor Pick this week: MIN
Survivor Picks: NO (W), IND (L), CIN (L), PHI (L), CHI (W), HOU (W), DEN (W), LAC (W), WAS (W), MIN
All games ATS:
CIN at BAL -6.5
Pick: CIN +6.5
- The Ravens are good but overrated, and Joe Burrow is starting to heat up. Cincy will lose in a shootout but they can hang with Lamar and Henry.
NYG at CAR
Pick: NYG -6.5
- Carolina is awful with Bryce Young at the helm, and somehow pulled out a lucky win despite losing to the Saints in every statistic. I don’t think that happen twice in a row.
NE at CHI -6
Pick: CHI -6
- I don’t have faith in either of these teams, I’m just going with my gut.
MIN -7 at JAX
Pick: MIN -7 SURVIVOR
- This bet is going to hit, and if it’s Mac Jones at the helm for Jacksonville feel free to take some alternate spreads too.
PIT at WAS -3
Pick: PIT +3 UNDERDOG WIN
- Washington is as hot as a button against the spread, after the Colts loss last week they are the best team in the NFL ATS, and haven’t played any defenses as good as the Steelers. This should be Jayden Daniels “welcome to the NFL” moment.
BUF -4 at IND
Pick: BUF -4
- Buffalo has been rolling teams, but not good ones and the Colts are no different. I could see Flacco powering his way to an upset as well. Colts win a close game or the Bills in a blowout? I like my chances with Buffalo.
DEN at KC -7.5
Pick: KC -7.5
- My heart and brain tell me to take Denver after a blowout loss, but it’s the Chiefs.
ATL -3.5 at NO
Pick: NO +3.5 UNDERDOG WIN
- I think the Falcons are more ‘pretenders’ than ‘contenders’, and New Orleans with a new OC will expose them.
SF -6 at TB
Pick: TB +6
The Bucs offense is too high-powered and the 49ers are too flawed/injured of a team to be getting nearly a touchdown over TB. I also don’t think CMC will play for weeks if at all.
TEN at LAC -7.5
Pick: LAC -7.5
I still foolishly believe that Tennessee has a chance to succeed here, and with Levis coming back it will be harder for the Chargers to pick on the QB. Though Levis might just do it to himself.
NYJ -1.5 at ARI
Pick: NYJ -1.5
- The only time I’ve gotten a spread right in a Cardinals matchup was the Niners game a few weeks ago. I have no idea how to handicap this team.
PHI -7 at DAL
Pick: PHI -7
- The Eagles are better than the Cowboys even with Dak, Micah, Lawrence all playing, and none of them are. This could be ugly.
DET -3.5 at HOU
Pick: DET -3.5
- This is the easiest decision of my life. Detroit is spectacular right now, and the Texans are not nearly as good as their record or this line.
MIA at LAR -1.5
Pick: LAR -1.5
- The Rams are getting even healthier for this game, and my dreams of the preseason Rams are finally being realized in this win streak. I knew I wasn’t crazy.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (66-69-3) 48.33%
Top 5 ATS: (22-23-0) 47.5%
All Picks ATS, on the ML: (69-69)
Calling dogs to win: (8-7)
Away Favorites: (16-11)
Home Underdogs: (7-5)
