Handicapping NFL Week 11 - ATS
Every week this season I will be handicapping every single game against the spread (ATS). This will also be where I have my weekly Survivor pick.
This will also be used as a place to track my record throughout the season.
- Keeping some more ‘advanced’ statistics at the bottom of the sheet, things like home ‘dogs, away favorites, etc.
All picks ATS: (73-75-4) 49.33%
Top 5 ATS: (25-24-1) 51.02%
Another week where I can’t break away from mediocrity, 8-7 across all games and 3-1-1 on the top picks with DET pushing. 2-0 on calling dogs to win so some money was made there to beat out the constant .500 plays. MIN booked another Survivor win as well.
Top Picks this week: GB, DEN, SF, KC, HOU
Survivor Pick this week: GB
Survivor Picks: NO (W), IND (L), CIN (L), PHI (L), CHI (W), HOU (W), DEN (W), LAC (W), WAS (W), MIN (W)
All games ATS:
WAS at PHI -4
Pick: WAS +4
- Washington has played two real teams very close this year, the Eagles have only played one real team 10 weeks ago against GB in Brazil. Philly is due for a loss after winning 5-straight.
BAL -3 at PIT
Pick: PIT +3
- The AFC North games are always close, Baltimore dropped a game to Cleveland which doesn’t make sense… except it does because it’s the AFC North. I’m betting on another divisional game classic.
MIN -6 at TEN
Pick: TEN +6 UNDERDOG WIN
- The Titans have been playing better since DeHop left, and if Sneed can come back, and if they can play a full game, and if Darnold is back to his former self, then Tennessee should win. A lot of IFs, but a lot of IFs that are trending in those directions.
CLE -1 at NO
Pick: NO +1
- No clue what happens in this game, a true toss-up that might find itself as pick ‘em as Sunday nears.
JAX at DET -14
Pick: JAX +14
- No other reason than the fact that 14 points is a lot to cover in the NFL.
GB -5.5 at CHI
Pick: GB -5.5
- The Bears have a lot of internal turmoil, coaches may be fired, the team is calling for Bagent to start, and too much non-football stuff happening in the background.
LV at MIA -7.5
Pick: LV +7.5
- Miami just got a win on primetime so they’re the overrated team of the week, Vegas isn’t a full touchdown worse than Miami.
LAR -4.5 at NE
Pick: LAR -4.5
- Counterpoint to Miami, the Rams just lost on primetime and that’s all anyone remembers, not that the Patriots stink.
IND at NYJ -4
Pick: IND +4
I haven’t been able to get a read on either of these teams all year so I’m going with the points.
ATL at DEN -2.5
Pick: DEN -2.5
- Denver was a blocked kick away from beating the Chiefs by two, if you think the Chiefs are one point better than Atlanta then go ahead and take them, I’ll be on the underrated/disrespected team.
SEA at SF -6.5
Pick: SF -6.5
Did you know that Brock Purdy has never lost to the Seahawks? I learned that while researching this pick… I don’t expect that trend to break now that CMC is back for San Fran.
KC at BUF -2.5
Pick: KC +2.5 UNDER DOG WIN
- Any chance you get the Chiefs as underdogs, you take them without question.
CIN at LAC -1.5
Pick: LAC -1.5
- The Chargers are just a better team all around than Cincy, and after two straight games of explosive offense, Cincy is due for a down game against the best defense in terms of points allowed.
HOU -7.5 at DAL
Pick: HOU -7.5
- After watching the Dak-less Cowboys, this bet couldn’t be more obvious. Of course, it had to be a MNF game, where the most shenanigans happen.
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Advanced betting info:
All picks ATS: (73-75-4) 49.33%
Top 5 ATS: (25-24-1) 51.02%
All Picks ATS, on the ML: (77-76)
Calling dogs to win: (10-7)
Away Favorites: (18-12)
Home Underdogs: (10-6)
