2024 Scouting Report - QB Caleb Williams, USC

I was looking forward to going into this review and had hoped the establishment was finally going to be right about the consensus #1 quarterback. To no surprise they were wrong… again. Unfortunately this is a business where the ‘made men’ don’t need to pay for their mistakes, but are rather paid for them.  Caleb Williams will likely fall into an ever growing list of first round quarterbacks that couldn’t make it, and in a league where coaches are fired every other season you need to be ready to play immediately. Caleb Williams is not, and may never be ready.

As I have the last couple years, I always go into these highly touted prospects with skepticism because of the track record the talking-heads have. Not to mention they’ve already been wrong on the prodigal son MHJ. After watching some highlights I had realized most (like 70%) plays were throws where he had to make a superhero-esc play. Now don’t get me wrong, it's great having a playmaker at the quarterback position, but I was ready to dive into the tape after this and see what a typical play was like for Caleb.
=====================================

- The way I watched the tape was first the ‘nothing’ games, where he is playing a bad team and supposed to beat up on them. This happened and all was good. Then I watched the games against mid-ranked opponents, not top 25 teams yet but better competition. Things started to get a bit shaky here, a little bit of uncertainty in his decisions but it was still dominant. At this point I decided to watch all of his games against the high-end competition from both his 2022 Heisman season, and the most recent 2023 season. 

- What I saw, in my opinion, was really not good. It was honestly quite bad. Over those two seasons (‘22-’23), against the tougher competition (top 40 ranked teams), Caleb Williams posted this impressive stat line in those 10 games.

4-6 record 

62.3% completion percentage

269.3 yards/game

1.6TDs/game

0.50 INTs/game

[Note to self and any deep IDP leagues, there’s a corner from Notre Dame, Benjamin Morrison. Keep an out for this guy. He was a superstar against MHJ and Caleb. There is definitely something there.]

- Back to the tape… What I see from Caleb Williams is an athletic football player who can throw a decent ball, but he doesn’t understand how to play Quarterback. It’s just not the position for him. Caleb doesn’t seem to have much command of the offense which is why he is so quick to roll out of the pocket and either make a play on the run, or take off on his own. When given the time to throw, Caleb seems unsure of what to do or of how to read the defense, which forces him to hold onto the ball longer, and eventually he can roll out to a more comfortable situation. After watching the CFB Playoffs a few weeks ago I can already tell you that Michael Penix Jr. is going to be a better NFL player, QB, and leader than Caleb ever will. I’m excited to watch his tape.
- One of the main qualities I look for when scouting a college quarterback is their willingness to sit in the pocket and throw the ball over the middle field, rather than working the sidelines. I view these as the most important qualities for a QB to have at this point in their career since it shows they are not only confident in their talent and arm strength, but usually shows that they can read a defense both before and after the snap. In the case of Caleb Williams, he is pretty bad in the pocket, like a D-grade but the second there’s any amount of pressure he bails rather than standing tall, moving up in the pocket, or any of the other options that a QB has in that scenario. When I say ‘bail’ I mean he scrambles around and looks to run the ball or usually tries to find the player with the same color jersey and throw the ball there. Almost like he’s afraid to get hit — Not a quality you want in your next face of the franchise.

Watching Caleb Williams, he doesn’t sit back and deliver a strike over the middle very often, and when he does it usually isn’t in a great spot for the receiver to continue upfield in-stride. This, in combination with his inability to play from the pocket will be his downfall in the league. If the Bears draft Williams first overall I would bet you that by the end of the preseason they will be running more play-action or designed roll-outs, and will likely run it more than anyone else in 2024. Good luck Chicago fans, you will likely have Johnny Manziel 2.0.

Prospect Grade: D+

=====================================

Coming back and reading this after the preseason and in preparation for when I start to post content, I believe I was a bit harsh on Caleb, I still agree with everything I said, and Williams still doesn’t look comfortable in the pocket. Always to the right as well… I wonder when the opposing defenses figure out they need to blitz him and force him left. I guess week 5. I think Caleb is a touch better than what I thought a few months ago. I don’t believe he is starting-caliber just yet, but he could always develop into something serviceable or better in the next few years. I wonder if his GM and coaches have that long, I dont’ suspect they will.

Prospect Re-grade: C/C-