2024 Week 5: Cardinals 24, 49ers 23

The 49ers felt like they were dominating this game, but they have this persistent issue of not converting in the red zone. This will turn around eventually, they’re there too often and too good for this to continue. Ultimately I think it was the heat that got to San Fran this week… the forecast in Santa Clara was 95° and was literally the hottest game ever played at Levi’s Stadium. Why did the heat play a role for SF? An unprecedented heatwave has been rolling through that area of California and the Niners had planned to wear their red home uniforms. 6 days before the game the Niners organization petitioned the NFL to allow them to wear their white uniforms but the league denied the request, saying that uniform schedules are decided pre-season and cannot be changed. San Francisco was up at half 23-10, and as the game wore on and temperatures continued to rise it became too much for the Niners to handle, being outscored 14 to nothing the second half, and losing by 1 point.

San Francisco falls to (2-3) and is playing in Seattle on Thursday night… a battered and broken Seahawks defense might get pummeled by the Niners playing with a chip on their shoulder. 

The Cardinals win and improve to (2-3) and have two tough games ahead of them, playing the Packers and Chargers in their next two games.

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QB Report:
- People are starting to hit the panic button on Brock Purdy (19/35 for 244 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 4 rushes for 33 yards), his completion percentage has been low the last two games and he’s not throwing touchdowns. I’m not seeing any cause for concern, the Niners offense just seems off, especially in the red zone. The Seahawks should be as get-right of a get-right game you can get in the NFL. 

- Kyler Murray (19/30 for 195 yards, 1TD/1INT, 7 rushes for 83 yards) is back to mid-season form: very boring stat lines and maybe he has a rushing touchdown to add excitement. Murray and the Cardinals had that one pop game against the Rams but otherwise, he’s averaging 176.5 yards, 1 TD through the air, and 47 yards and 0.25 TDs on the ground. Kyler had his first rushing TD in 10 games this game.

RB Report:

- As the Cardinals win, so does James Conner (19-86-0, 2 catches for 14 yards). As long as Arizona is competitive in the race for the division he will continue to be the lead back. If they start to fold because this team is not great then rookie Trey Benson (DNP) will be featured more and more, but as long as their playoff hopes are alive, Benson’s takeover will be delayed.

- Jordan Mason (14-89-0, 1 catch for 9 yards) fumbled in a goal-to-go situation, up by 2, with 6 minutes left in the game. I don’t see any issues here, SF is just having trouble hitting pay dirt. 

WR/TE Report:

- Brandon Aiyuk (8-147-0/12) was a major part of the offense for the first time this season. I believe Deebo Samuel (1-11-0/3, 3 rushes for 9 yards) and Aiyuk will switch off who has the big game, similar to the Buccaneers. The caveat to that is that the highs will be just as high, but the lows, particularly for Aiyuk, will be lower than what the WR tandem in Tampa Bay has. Deebo will be saved by his rushing ability when he isn’t a big part of the passing game. Deebo is a potential buy-low in fantasy football after two low-output games and missing the game prior due to injury.

- Jauan Jennings (1-13-0/4) had been hot for the two bad Deebo games, but he cooled off in this one. I’m beginning to think Jennings is Purdy’s guy, he had a lot of end zone targets that he and Purdy were unable to connect on, and even more targets in the red zone that weren’t attributed to him.

The other non-Aiyuk target that popped off this game was George Kittle (8-64-1/12). Kittle is having a strong start to the season and I don’t see why it can’t continue. If all of the WRs, Purdy, Kittle, and Mason can click like they did late last year SF has a chance to make another Super Bowl. Let’s see if it happens against a weak Seattle D or maybe they rise to the occasion when they host the Chiefs.

- Marvin Harrison (2-36-0/7) continues to be a ghost on the field, catching exactly 50% of his targets. Using his PFF stats and a minimum of 10 targets, his catch rate is good for T121 with other stars like Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper, Greg Dulcich, and Jonathan Mingo. To put that in perspective 40% is only 8 spots lower than him and a 60% catch rate is T101 or 20 spots above him. The league average catch % for WR is usually around 65%. Kyler is still going to force throws to him as often as he can despite having other receivers that are capable of getting open so he’s still usable, but it takes targets away from players that will actually do something with the ball.

- The other receiving threats ARI has are Trey McBride (6-53-0/9) and Michael Wilson (5-78-0/6). I was a game off for when I thought Michael Wilson would explode… I was hoping/bet on it being Week 4. Trey McBride is Kyler’s other favorite target but the Cardinals already have a low passing volume so no receiving threat is great.

McBride will work because TEs are hardly being used this year. Wilson is a great route runner but is going to waste behind MHJ-McBride.

image source: (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)