2024 Week 1: Ravens 20, Chiefs 27

The long wait is over and the NFL season is officially underway. That also means it’s time for everyone to overreact about everything. This game we just watched is the new norm for the next 17 weeks.

Game 1 of 272 is in the books and it certainly did not disappoint. Like most week 1 games this started with the refs trying to lay down the law with the new rules and Ravens lineman Ronnie Stanley was public enemy number 1 being the culprit 3 out of the 5 times it was called last night. All 5 instances were against the Ravens as well, while the Chiefs lined up wrong all night and weren’t called… 

This game started out with a flurry of points and I thought we might be heading into a shootout if the Ravens could get their offense to click. While the Ravens offense stumbled their defense found its legs and was able to keep them in the game all the way to the end, where a horrible set of downs by the Ravens offense in the red zone eventually ended in Isaiah Likely being a toe away from a potential win.

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QB Report:

- Patrick Mahomes (20/28 for 291 yards, 1 TD/1 INT. 2-3-0 rushing) played a classic Mahomes game, efficient passing and taking what the defense gave him. This was refreshing to see as Mahomes is coming off his worst season in 2023. As efficient as the offense was run this was another dud Fantasy football-wise. 8 of his last 13 games in 2023 under 250 yards. Kelce starting to age and Matt Nagy are killing Mahomes and this offense, an extra stab in fantasy terms.

- Lamar Jackson (26/41 for 273 yards, 1TD/0 INT. 16-122-0) on the other hand, this offense is going to need some work. There’s clearly a lack of trust in this offensive line and it is warranted. It’s almost a brand new unit and it will take time for them to gel, for the sake of the Ravens Superbowl hopes they need it sooner rather than later. To start the Ravens first drive of the second half Cris Collinsworth finally said something useful in the booth, stating that Lamar’s average depth of target (aDOT) was just over 1 yard. You cannot run a successful offense at any level that way. 

They started to work the ball ‘downfield’ a bit more but that was more 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, rather than at or behind it like they had all game prior.

This offense eventually turned into Lamar trying to and successfully being a hero running the running and scrambling his way to an almost game-winning drive, and using his new favorite target Isaiah Likely.

The reason the Ravens lost this game, partially because of the o-line, granted they only allowed 1 sack and 1 QB hit, is because Lamar can’t throw down field successfully. When the Ravens needed Lamar to make a play with his arm, he didn’t. Lamar has never been a good thrower of the ball and at this point 7 years in, he never will be. The game shouldn’t have even come down to the last play, missing TD chances on the two plays before that.

RB report:

- Let’s start with Derrick Henry(13-46-1, 0-0-0/2) who was seemingly a ghost this game. This was a concerning game to watch, and while I do respect the Chiefs run defense, this Ravens line needs to come together if they want Derrick Henry to work at all. Henry, fortunately, is so good that he almost always turns a negative yardage play into at least no-gain. Henry had 8 carries in the first quarter, almost no snaps in the second and third quarter, and ended with 13 total touches. Todd Monken masterclass, just as we saw against the Chiefs in the AFC championship game.

- Justice Hill(1-3-0, 6-52-0/8) had a lot of meaningful work which is exciting for when the real explosive runner, Keaton Mitchell returns from his injury. Just from watching I would say Hill played more snaps than Henry in this game which is confusing but Monken went against the Harbaugh family MO this game so it checks out. Abandoning the run in back-to-back games against the Chiefs, Harbaugh needs to have a sit down with Monken and tell him to stop being ‘cute’ against the Chiefs. This is a run-run-run-run-play action-run offense. 

- Isaiah Pacheco(15-45-1, 2-33-0/3) is so good. I love watching him play football, he is just such a natural runner with the ball in his hands. He didn’t break any big runs, but regardless it was a nice all-around game for him, and it warms my heart as a fantasy owner seeing him get opportunities in the pass game.

The biggest takeaway from the Chiefs backfield – Carsone Steele (2-3-0) is the real handcuff to Pacheco, not Samaje Perine (1-10-0/2).

WR/TE Report:

- Isaiah Likely (9-111-1/12) appears to have made his breakout game over Mark Andrews(2-14-0/2) who received only 2 targets all game. Likely has been lurking behind Andrews and started to play well last season with Andrews absence, this isn’t surprising but I wasn’t expecting it now. I own some shares of Mark Andrews and I don’t think that this is the end of him but there is certainly some concern in that regard. Likely was the safety net for Lamar in this game, over Zay and Andrews. 

This game won’t be the trend for the Ravens this season, Andrews is a respected veteran and will get his share of targets because of that. This will be a 55/45 split between the two for the rest of the season but what is that really worth, in a low-end passing game.

A lot of Likely’s success seemed to be because KC just didn’t gameplan for him, he was open a lot and they took advantage.

- Rashee Rice (7-103-0/9) is back in his pitch-and-catch and will be for the whole season, or as long as he plays with the felony charges hanging over him. This will work for fantasy football as he is the only semi-legit WR the Chiefs have. Travis Kelce (3-34-0/4) and Mahomes are still best friends and Kelce is the ‘get out of jail free card’, but Rice seems like the go-to on designed plays.

- Xavier Worthy (2-47-1/3, 1-21-1) scored two touchdowns in this game, the first a nice end around where he flashed his speed, cut up the middle and scored untouched. His second touchdown was just a blown coverage by Marlon Humphrey, which shouldn’t be the norm for him. Only three targets in this game but Andy Reid at least got creative giving him a carry, though it should be 3-5+ carries per game if you really want to utilize his speed. I didn’t see much on his non-targeted routes that impressed, just 2 receptions on 3 targets in his 34 snaps.

I would sell high after this event.

D/ST and Miscellaneous notes:

Roquan Smith (7 tackles, 1TFL, 1 PD) played an awful game and was a liability in the passing game throughout. Rice doesn’t put up 100 yards if Roquan wasn’t playing in this game.

Trent McDuffie (4 tackles) had his debut on the outside but will likely be moved back to the slot, he plays much more naturally there.

The Chiefs defense was fine in this game and will improve as the season goes on… as they always do. The Ravens defense was rough, they had their moments but losing two top corners the last 2 seasons has killed this pass defense. 

Snap Counts:

Pacheco: 43

Perine: 8

Steele 5

Kelce: 48

Gray: 29

Justice Hill: 43

Henry: 37 – as I suspected